This week (March 22-26, 2021), cotton prices at home and abroad have fallen sharply; domestic and foreign cotton yarn prices have fallen sharply, and polyester staple fiber prices have fallen sharply.

　　 1. Domestic cotton prices accelerate the callback

　　 This week, the European epidemic rebounded again and the Sino-US relations were strained, which triggered market concerns about demand. H&M stopped Xinjiang cotton to help fuel the flames. Zheng Mian fell below the 15,000 yuan/ton mark, and the spot price of lint fell. On March 22-26, 2021, the main contract settlement price of Zhengzhou cotton futures was 15,435 yuan/ton, a decrease of 191 yuan/ton or 1.2% from the previous week; the national cotton price B index average price of 15,521, representing the market price of standard-grade lint cotton in the mainland Yuan/ton, a decrease of 386 Yuan/ton or 2.4% from the previous week.

　　 2. International cotton prices fell sharply

　　 The third wave of epidemics in Europe has returned. Many countries have restarted blockades, leading to a sharp drop in international crude oil. Superimposed by the Federal Reserve’s hint to reduce debt purchases, ICE cotton was sold wildly, international cotton prices fell sharply, and ICE cotton prices hit their limit. On March 22-26, 2021, the settlement price of the main contract of New York cotton futures was 84.62 cents/lb, down 1.44 cents/lb from the previous week, or 1.7%; the international cotton index representing the average CIF price of imported cotton in China’s main ports (M) The average price was 89.82 US cents/lb, a decrease of 3.61 US cents/lb from the previous week, or 3.9%, equivalent to RMB 14,486 yuan/ton (calculated at 1% tariff, including port goods and freight), compared with the previous week It fell by 566 yuan/ton, or 3.8%, the international cotton price was 1035 yuan/ton lower than the domestic cotton price, and the price difference between the domestic and foreign markets expanded by 180 yuan/ton from last week.

　　3. Both domestic and foreign cotton yarn prices fell

　　 This week, as cotton prices fell, the volume and price of downstream cotton yarns both fell. Pre-production orders are about to end, new orders are weak, and the market's enthusiasm for inquiries and purchases has significantly cooled. The extension of the European blockade has caused consumer concerns, the international cotton yarn market has turned down, and the price of outer yarn has been lowered. At present, the conventional outer yarn is 463 yuan/ton higher than the domestic yarn. Downstream grey cloth delivery slowed down, and the price of pure cotton cloth continued to drop. The price of polyester staple fiber fell with the price of oil.

　　 Fourth, outlook

　　 The Federal Reserve hinted at reducing debt purchases, and the momentum of the international cotton market weakened. Inflationary pressures forced the central banks of Brazil, Russia, Turkey and other countries to announce interest rate hikes. Other emerging economies are expected to raise interest rates. Powell said that it will gradually reduce the purchase of US Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, and US stocks have collectively plunged. In the international cotton market, the 2020/21 U.S. cotton contract is basically completed, and the shipment volume reached 64%. The actual momentum of the ICE cotton trend continues to weaken; the southeastern United States is currently in the preparation stage, and the USDA predicts that the global cotton harvest area in 2021/22 will increase 2.9%. At present, downstream Europe has extended the blockade, and the world's port logistics has become severe. Since February, the problem of cargo backlog in US ports has reached a peak. Indian cotton has been delayed or slowed down in shipment and export, and cotton merchants have been unable to quote cotton in transit. The boycott of H&M's suspension of Xinjiang cotton incident is still fermenting, and sales of European and American textile clothing brands in the Chinese market will decline in the short term. It is expected that the wide fluctuations in international cotton prices will continue in the short term.

　　 The news disturbed market sentiment, and domestic cotton prices continued to slump. Recently, the Governor of the People’s Bank of China Yi Gang emphasized that my country has a large room for monetary policy control. China’s monetary policy has always been maintained within a normal range, with sufficient tools and means, and a moderate level of interest rates. It emphasizes cherishing and making good use of the normal monetary policy space and maintaining policy Continuity, stability and sustainability. In the domestic cotton market, affected by the decline in cotton prices, the sales progress of domestic cotton purchase and processing enterprises lint this week has slowed by 16% compared with last week. As of March 26, the cumulative sales of lint cotton was 4.889 million tons, an increase of 1.331 million tons year-on-year. According to a recent survey by China Cotton.com, 85% of the 54 textile companies participating in the survey use Xinjiang cotton as their main raw material, and half of them plan to increase sales in the domestic market. Regarding the sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe on Xinjiang cotton and its products, 40% of the companies believe that the impact is fair and acceptable; 33% of the companies believe that the impact is small and the loss is small, and it doesn’t matter; 18% have almost no impact; the impact is serious and has caused a greater impact The loss accounted for only 7%. At present, the spring and summer orders in the downstream market are nearing the end, and the market is in the transitional period of seasons, and the prices of cotton yarn and cotton cloth have fallen, and downstream customers have not placed many orders. Affected by the news of U.S. sanctions on Xinjiang cotton, market concerns have not been lifted in the short term. Focusing on the next development of Sino-U.S. relations, domestic cotton prices are expected to remain sluggish.

Source of this article: Textile Network (If there is any infringement, delete it immediately)